Italy: the only obstacle standing in the way of Sunday 11th June 2021 becoming one of the most iconic days in the history of the nation of England.
I've taken a deeper look at how Italy could be exploited come tomorrow evening, majorly focusing on Spain's somewhat successful approach at coping with the Azzurri's threat in their semi-final encounter. It's clearly not going to be an easy task for the Three Lions, especially given Roberto Mancini's side's current 33-game unbeaten run. The Italians haven't trailed in a match in the last two years!
I'll start by outlining the desire of Italy to immediately gain the front foot when in possession, with a constantly high tempo and large exertion of pressure without the ball. They attempt to allow little space for opposing sides to progress into, sometimes confining them with the deployment of a high line. The overload from runners in behind offers one of their biggest threats when attacking, with their fullbacks often acting as wingbacks despite Mancini using a back four.
It's the attacking Italian fullbacks that could actually create openings for England at the other end of the pitch - an area Southgate will surely look to capitalise on. When these fullbacks are in possession in the wide areas - if a back four is the ultimate decision for England - Shaw and Walker will have to be very careful not to become overwhelmed by the overloads created on the flanks. Before a hugely unfortunate ruptured achilles curtailed his stellar tournament, Leonardo Spinazzola was the epitome of the threat offered by Italy via the fullbacks. However, the willingness of the Italy fullbacks to push forward will leave the veteran pair of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini exposed to possible counter attacks if there are any abrupt turnovers. If England approach directly, the pair's ability could prove overwhelming. On the other hand, with there respective careers reaching the latter stages, no doubt many of the English wide players would have the beating of them for pace.
For Spain in midweek, Dani Olmo was stationed as a false nine in the starting side (with Alvaro Morata benched by Luis Enrique). The purpose of this move was to drag the Italian centre backs out of position, causing some structural chaos across the back line. Kane already has a habit of dropping deep to gain possession anyway, so this could be a viable tactic to be installed by England tomorrow to create space in behind the Italy defence. Theoretically speaking, especially following an attacking move which consists of likely starting fullbacks Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Emerson Palmieri pushing forward, even some slight movement into deeper areas by the England captain could engineer crucial vacancies behind the back line. As aforementioned, pace would likely then be key for beating the two experienced heads at the back - with Southgate's trusty pair of Saka and Sterling able to break into the unoccupied space out wide to cause a nuisance.
Speaking of fullbacks, the left back position could be something targeted by England given Emerson's relative inexperience in the tournament (two starts) - he was only drafted in against Spain due to Spinazzola's injury. Though Emerson's job was sufficient before being replaced by Rafael Toloi towards the end of the second half, Mikel Oyarzabal did have some joy and squandered some excellent opportunities; if England were to be clinical, some avail could easily be achieved down their right hand side. Moments of slight positional unawareness from the Chelsea man opened up some areas in the final third that could give opportunities to England if similar flaws are repeated.
It became clear, given Spain's approach, that patience can be key against the Italians. Unlike in some other fixtures, the game was taken to Italy and often to good effect; don't forget, it took penalties for the Azzurri to actually confirm their place in the final. One approach that could be adopted by Southgate is to hold possession and run Italy around, attempting to create space in this manner. Given Italy's typical defensive discipline and structure, movement will be vital to try and disrupt that system. This way, the Italians could also become fatigued and frustrated - sometimes apparent against Spain, as more fouls were committed when out of possession for extended periods. Also, as simple as it seems, keeping possession also limits the amount of joy Italy can gain.
Conversely, if this approach fails or is not entirely possible, England have to be aware of the threat posed by Italy given their extreme intricacy of passing (especially in tight areas). Spain countered Italy's approach by somewhat matching their 4-3-3, with Pedri still slightly more progressive than Koke and Sergio Busquets - a role that Mount is capable of operating given his positional fluidity. Winning the midfield battle will likely be integral, so matching Italy man-for-man could be a viable strategy to prevent their trademark movement of the ball through these areas. Potentially matching Mount with Chelsea teammate Jorginho, Phillips with Marco Verratti and Rice with Nico Barella could disrupt their flow in aspects such as transitions. Pressure has to be applied when out of possession, because Italy's passing approach with its high tempo has proven to be lethal. If we are to try and match them, this throws a three at the back formation out of the offing.
I mentioned the threat of Italy running in behind initially, so I'll finish by elaborating on this major formula. The possible front three of Federico Chiesa and Lorenzo Insigne either side of Ciro Immobile - used against Belgium and Spain - is extremely dangerous given their dynamacy in conjunction with the willingness to get in behind with their pace (very prevalent when on the break). The entire English back line has to watch for balls being played in behind, with that particular method often running Eric Garcia and Aymeric Laporte riot on Tuesday. Sticking tight to these runners, or even attempting the risky offside trap could be options to counter this risk. Stop Italy in midfield, and these through balls wouldn't even be allowed to cause the English defence any issues. If this fails, the defence has to be prepared for the impending harrowing - something Stones and Maguire have dealt impeccably with thus far in the tournament.
I'm sure you can conclude it's not going to be easy to overcome Italy - they really have proven that they are back as some force. However, counter their threats and exploit their minor weaknesses, then something rather massive could be achieved. I'd very much settle with a four man defence to nullify their midfield, though some may favour the extra defensive support of a five man back line to overcome the overload. It's imperative for England to damage the Italian rhythm, and get the game onto their own terms. It is almost impossible to call the outcome!
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